Data¶
Socio-economic trends¶
Population (millions)¶
Source: Population Dynamics and Priority Issues for Ethiopia’s 15 Years Perspective Development Plan, 2018, Ethiopian Academy of Sciences
| Scenario | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium variant | 100.84 | 114.96 | 129.75 | 144.94 |
GDP growth (%)¶
Source: Planning and Development Commission of Ethiopia
| Sectors | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | (2021-2025) | (2026-2030) | (2021-2030) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Industry | 12.2 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 14.6 | 13 |
| Service | 8.8 | 11 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.6 |
| GDP growth | 7.7 | 9 | 8 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 10.2 |
Energy sector¶
Demands (Petajoules)¶
Source: Own projections based on data from IEA World Energy Statistics (2018)
| Commodity | Driver 1 | Driver 1 coupling | Driver 2 | Driver 2 coupling | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGRDSL | GDP per capita | 0.5 | Population | 1 | 5.76 | 7.63 | 10.08 | 13.80 |
| AGRELC002 | GDP per capita | 1.25 | Electrification rate | 0.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| COMBIO | GDP (real) | 0.5 | GDP per capita | -0.5 | 15.79 | 17.61 | 18.79 | 19.96 |
| COMDSL | GDP (real) | 0.5 | Population | 0 | 2.45 | 2.91 | 3.64 | 4.75 |
| COMELC002 | GDP (real) | 1 | Electrification rate | 0 | 8.62 | 12.06 | 18.72 | 31.41 |
| INDDSL | GDP - industry (real) | 0.5 | Population | 0 | 20.98 | 27.65 | 36.49 | 51.89 |
| INDELC002 | GDP - industry (real) | 1 | Electrification rate | 0 | 10.93 | 18.62 | 31.95 | 63.15 |
| INDHFO | GDP - industry (real) | 0.5 | Population | 0 | 2.91 | 3.83 | 5.06 | 7.19 |
| INDNAP | GDP - industry (real) | 0.5 | Population | 0 | 1.69 | 2.23 | 2.94 | 4.18 |
| INDOHC | GDP - industry (real) | 0.5 | Population | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| MIGCOA | GDP - industry (real) | 0.6 | Population | 0 | 1.09 | 1.52 | 2.11 | 3.21 |
| MIGELC002 | GDP - industry (real) | 0.6 | Electrification rate | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| MIGPCK | GDP - industry (real) | 0.6 | Population | 1 | 9.13 | 15.50 | 24.17 | 40.73 |
| OTHDSL | Population | 1 | Population | 0 | 5.76 | 7.16 | 8.08 | 9.02 |
| OTHELC002 | Population | 1 | Electrification rate | 0 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| OTHOHC | Population | 1 | Population | 0 | 3.82 | 4.74 | 5.35 | 5.98 |
| RESBIO | GDP per capita | -0.3 | Population | 1 | 1569.63 | 1872.91 | 1917.58 | 1888.83 |
| RESELC002 | Population | 1 | Electrification rate | 1 | 11.91 | 21.05 | 52.31 | 86.47 |
| RESKER | GDP per capita | -0.1 | Population | 1 | 11.74 | 14.39 | 15.72 | 16.85 |
| RESLPG | GDP per capita | 0.2 | Population | 1 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| TRADSL | GDP (real) | 0.5 | Population | 0.5 | 53.79 | 71.04 | 94.28 | 129.60 |
| TRAELC002 | GDP (real) | 0.5 | Electrification rate | 0.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TRAGSL | GDP (real) | 0.5 | Population | 0.5 | 14.75 | 19.48 | 25.86 | 35.54 |
| TRAJET | GDP (real) | 0.75 | Population | 0.5 | 3.18 | 4.55 | 6.72 | 10.48 |
Powerplants - existing capacity (Gigawatts)¶
Source: Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy - Ethiopia
| Technology | Name | MoManI name | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Hydro | Sor | PWRHYD001 | 0.0052 | 0.0049 | 0.0047 | 0.0044 |
| Small Hydro | Tis Abay I | PWRHYD002 | 0.0085 | 0.0082 | 0.0079 | 0.0077 |
| Medium Hydro | Melka Wakena (refurb 2014) | PWRHYD003 | 0.0380 | 0.0377 | 0.0375 | 0.0372 |
| Medium Hydro | Amerti Neshe | PWRHYD004 | 0.0979 | 0.0977 | 0.0974 | 0.0972 |
| Medium Hydro | Tis Abay II | PWRHYD005 | 0.0723 | 0.0721 | 0.0718 | 0.0716 |
| Medium Hydro | Koka | PWRHYD006 | 0.0403 | 0.0400 | 0.0398 | 0.0395 |
| Medium Hydro | Awash II | PWRHYD007 | 0.0296 | 0.0293 | 0.0291 | 0.0288 |
| Medium Hydro | Awash III | PWRHYD008 | 0.0298 | 0.0296 | 0.0293 | 0.0291 |
| Large Hydro | Finchaa | PWRHYD009 | 0.1319 | 0.1316 | 0.1314 | 0.1311 |
| Large Hydro | Melka Wakena | PWRHYD010 | 0.1129 | 0.1127 | 0.1124 | 0.1122 |
| Large Hydro | Tana Beles | PWRHYD011 | 0.4598 | 0.4595 | 0.4593 | 0.4590 |
| Large Hydro | Gilgel Gibe II | PWRHYD012 | 0.4198 | 0.4195 | 0.4193 | 0.4190 |
| Large Hydro | Tekeze | PWRHYD013 | 0.2997 | 0.2995 | 0.2992 | 0.2990 |
| Large Hydro | Gigel Gibe I | PWRHYD014 | 0.1835 | 0.1832 | 0.1830 | 0.1827 |
| Large Hydro | Gilgel Gibe III | PWRHYD015 | 0.7480 | 0.7477 | 0.7475 | 0.7472 |
| Large Hydro | Gilgel Gibe III | PWRHYD016 | 1.1220 | 1.1218 | 1.1215 | 1.1213 |
| Large Hydro | Genale Dawa III | PWRHYD017 | 0.2540 | 0.2538 | 0.2535 | 0.2533 |
| Wind | Adama | PWRWND001 | 0.0509 | 0.0506 | 0.0504 | 0.0000 |
| Wind | Ashegoda I | PWRWND002 | 0.0299 | 0.0296 | 0.0294 | 0.0000 |
| Wind | Ashegoda II | PWRWND003 | 0.0900 | 0.0897 | 0.0895 | 0.0000 |
| Wind | Adama II | PWRWND004 | 0.1530 | 0.1528 | 0.1525 | 0.1523 |
| Wind | Iteya I | PWRWND005 | 0.0000 | 0.1998 | 0.1996 | 0.1993 |
| Wind | Iteya II | PWRWND006 | 0.0000 | 0.1998 | 0.1996 | 0.1993 |
| Wind | Iteya III | PWRWND007 | 0.0000 | 0.1999 | 0.1996 | 0.1994 |
| Wind | Debire Birhan | PWRWND008 | 0.0000 | 0.0999 | 0.0996 | 0.0994 |
| Wind | Ayisha I&II | PWRWND009 | 0.0000 | 0.4199 | 0.4196 | 0.4194 |
| Solar | Metehara | PWRSOL001 | 0.0000 | 0.0998 | 0.0996 | 0.0993 |
| Solar | Mekele | PWRSOL002 | 0.0000 | 0.0998 | 0.0996 | 0.0993 |
| Solar | Humera | PWRSOL003 | 0.0000 | 0.0998 | 0.0996 | 0.0993 |
| Geothermal | Aluto Langano | PWRGEO001 | 0.0066 | 0.0064 | 0.0061 | 0.0059 |
| Geothermal | Aluto Langano III | PWRGEO002 | 0.0000 | 0.0999 | 0.0996 | 0.0994 |
| Geothermal | Tendaho | PWRGEO003 | 0.0000 | 0.0998 | 0.0996 | 0.0993 |
| Biomass | Bamza | PWRBIO001 | 0.1200 | 0.1198 | 0.1195 | 0.1193 |
| Biomass | Meikasedi | PWRBIO002 | 0.1375 | 0.1373 | 0.1370 | 0.1368 |
| Diesel | Dire Dawa | PWRDSL001 | 0.0400 | 0.0397 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Diesel | Awash 7 Kilo | PWRDSL002 | 0.0350 | 0.0347 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Diesel | Kality | PWRDSL003 | 0.0120 | 0.0117 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
Powerplants - planned capacity (Gigawatts)¶
Source: Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy - Ethiopia
| Technology | Name | MoManI name | Construction year | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Hydro | Abu Samuel | PWRHYD018 | 2020 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Medium Hydro | Wabi Shebele | PWRHYD019 | 2020 | 0 | 0.088 | 0.088 | 0.088 |
| Large Hydro | Genji | PWRHYD020 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0.214 | 0.214 |
| Large Hydro | Geba 1 + Geba 2 | PWRHYD021 | 2020 | 0 | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.372 |
| Large Hydro | Genale V | PWRHYD022 | 2020 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Large Hydro | Gibe IV | PWRHYD023 | 2020 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Large Hydro | Upper Dabus | PWRHYD024 | 2020 | 0 | 0.326 | 0.326 | 0.326 |
| Large Hydro | Birbir River | PWRHYD025 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0.467 | 0.467 |
| Large Hydro | Werabesa + Halele | PWRHYD026 | 2020 | 0 | 0.422 | 0.422 | 0.422 |
| Large Hydro | Yeda 1 + Yeda 2 | PWRHYD027 | 2020 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Large Hydro | Genale Dawa VI | PWRHYD028 | 2020 | 0 | 0.256 | 0.256 | 0.256 |
| Large Hydro | Gibe V | PWRHYD029 | 2020 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Large Hydro | Lower Didessa | PWRHYD030 | 2020 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| Large Hydro | Baro 1 + Baro 2 | PWRHYD031 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0.645 | 0.645 |
| Large Hydro | Tekeze II | PWRHYD032 | 2020 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Large Hydro | Gojeb | PWRHYD033 | 2020 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Large Hydro | Aleltu East | PWRHYD034 | 2020 | 0 | 0.189 | 0.189 | 0.189 |
| Large Hydro | Tams | PWRHYD035 | 2020 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Large Hydro | Aleltu West | PWRHYD036 | 2020 | 0 | 0.265 | 0.265 | 0.265 |
| Large Hydro | Lower Dabus | PWRHYD037 | 2020 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Large Hydro | Karadobi | PWRHYD038 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Large Hydro | Beko Abo | PWRHYD039 | 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0.935 | 0.935 |
| Large Hydro | Upper Mendaya | PWRHYD040 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Large Hydro | Grand Renaissance | PWRHYD041 | 2018 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Large Hydro | Grand Renaissance II | PWRHYD042 | 2022 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| Wind | [No name] | PWRWND010 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Wind | Dila | PWRWND011 | 2018 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Wind | Assela | PWRWND012 | 2018 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Wind | Sululta | PWRWND013 | 2019 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Wind | Mega Maji | PWRWND014 | 2019 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Solar | [No name] | PWRSOL004 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Geothermal | [No name] | PWRGEO004 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Geothermal | Corbetti | PWRGEO005 | 2022 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Geothermal | Tulu Moye/Abaya | PWRGEO006 | 2022 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Geothermal | Aluto Langano II | PWRGEO007 | 2018 | 0 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 |
| Biomass | Addis Ababa Reppi | PWRBIO003 | 2018 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Natural gas | OCGT/GT (Gas Turbine) | PWRNGS001 | 2020 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Natural gas | CCGT (Natural gas power plant) | PWRNGS002 | 2020 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
Land use¶
Land area by land use (1000 sq.km.)¶
Source: Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ), FAO/IIASA
| Region | Cluster | Barren and sparsely vegetated land | Built-up land | Forest land | Grassland & woodland | Cropland | Other | Water bodies | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADD | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| AFA | 1 | 2.79 | 0.58 | 0.94 | 21.78 | 2.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.85 |
| AFA | 2 | 41.52 | 0.34 | 0.64 | 22.07 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 4.72 | 70.55 |
| AMH | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 17.05 | 31.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 48.63 |
| AMH | 2 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 42.77 | 37.19 | 0.00 | 23.15 | 103.63 |
| BEN | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.18 | 17.98 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 20.08 |
| BEN | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1.86 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 3.06 |
| BEN | 3 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.40 | 13.73 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 16.81 |
| GAM | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.99 | 11.91 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 12.99 |
| GAM | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.84 | 7.06 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 11.99 |
| ORO | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 9.51 | 46.35 | 18.92 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 75.52 |
| ORO | 2 | 1.02 | 0.34 | 9.06 | 47.67 | 15.96 | 0.00 | 4.91 | 78.96 |
| ORO | 3 | 0.04 | 0.46 | 6.98 | 148.27 | 17.04 | 0.00 | 6.67 | 179.46 |
| SOM | 1 | 4.27 | 0.29 | 2.56 | 127.64 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 136.21 |
| SOM | 2 | 2.41 | 0.14 | 14.89 | 44.91 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 62.99 |
| SOM | 3 | 1.99 | 0.30 | 5.18 | 94.87 | 0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 103.24 |
| SOU | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 2.44 | 14.20 | 2.77 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 19.65 |
| SOU | 2 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 2.57 | 13.74 | 1.53 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 18.28 |
| SOU | 3 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 4.18 | 45.81 | 3.36 | 0.00 | 3.88 | 57.34 |
| TIG | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 12.65 | 3.83 | 0.00 | 2.46 | 19.21 |
| TIG | 2 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.47 | 29.55 | 4.16 | 0.00 | 2.46 | 36.78 |
Crops: harvested area and production (2016)¶
Source: FAOSTAT Agriculture Statistics
| Crop code | Crop name | Area harvested (1000 sq.km) | Production (Million tonnes) | Yield (t/ha) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CP01 | Barley | 9.70 | 2.10 | 2.11 |
| CP02 | Cereals | 5.86 | 1.17 | 2.27 |
| CP03 | Coffee | 6.86 | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| CP04 | Maize | 22.36 | 7.36 | 3.67 |
| CP05 | Oilseeds | 9.39 | 0.83 | 1.04 |
| CP06 | Other crops | 14.39 | 4.89 | 3.35 |
| CP07 | Pulses | 16.39 | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| CP08 | Sorghum | 18.28 | 4.93 | 2.53 |
| CP09 | Tea | 0.09 | 0.01 | 1.08 |
| CP10 | Teff | 31.52 | 5.39 | 1.66 |
| CP11 | Wheat | 17.49 | 4.24 | 2.68 |
| TOTAL | 152.33 | 34.40 | 2.33 |
Clustering results¶
The CLEWs-Ethiopia model is spatially resolved into ‘clusters’ of land. The clusters are determined by aggregating cells in each region based on the similarity in their agro-climatic characteristics.
Below are the results of the clustering algorithm for each region. NOTE: Addis Ababa (ADD) is not shown below as it is represented by a single cluster:
Afar (AFA)
Amhara (AMH)
Benishangul-Gumuz (BEN)
Gambela (GAM)
Oromia (ORO)
Somali region (SOM)
Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SOU)
Tigray (TIG)
Water sector¶
Water demand by sector (Billion cubic metres)¶
Source: Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy - Ethiopia
| Region | Industry | Public supply | Livestock | Agriculture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADD | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| AFA | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.30 |
| AMH | 0.02 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 1.58 |
| BEN | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| GAM | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| ORO | 0.13 | 0.50 | 0.09 | 4.96 |
| SOM | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.53 |
| SOU | 0.01 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.77 |
| TIG | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.29 |
| TOTAL | 0.36 | 1.28 | 0.62 | 9.49 |